zwu, that's a difficult question to answer without a lot of research/information. GNS advised that the quake/tsunami impacted on Nippon Paper more than any other producer taking chips from them. However, GNS also said that accounted for only 2 ship loads (2 x 50,000 tonnes).
I suspect the Japanese will be working out when each of their pulp and paper mills will be back on line, and then they will make sure they have chips ready for that point in time. That means they need to get their orders to suppliers in time for the plantations to be harvested, chipped, stockpiled at the wharf in Tasmania, ship-loading, passage to Japan etc. In the meantime, they could also be competing with other chip buyers for harvesting and chipping capacity. GNS don't heap wood chips on wharves waiting for orders - ties up too much working capital.
I think that this means they need to be working on a two to three month lead time. Will the mills be ready in two to three months? - if they are, then the Japanese will need to order the chips today if they want product to put into their digesters.
I have also heard rumours that with power shortages the Japanese govt will want the Kraft pulp mills up and running asap so that the power the recovery boilers and their power houses generates can be exported into the grid. Replacement power for nuclear capacity out of action. I don't know how realistic that is. It would mean integrated pulp and paper mills (i.e. most Japanese Kraft mills) would need to keep their paper machines idle as that is where most of the power generated on site goes. Time will tell.
Lordo might be able to shed some light on this conjecture.
GNS Price at posting:
60.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
