I agree with your analysis. However, there is another reason for...

I agree with your analysis.
However, there is another reason for the discount. You have assumed that the Board and Mnagement will act in the interests of shareholders and distribute the surplus cash in the form of capital returns, buybacks or dividends. In fact if you analyse the history of this company there is nil chance of this happening. Like HVN buying dairy farms or GRR building apartments, it is a play thing of the controlling shareholder where minority shareholders take the downside risk. Since the late 2000s, VTG has " invested" in the Next Byte Apple stores, mens athletic wear, and SHAW which have nothing to do with what was promised on the box when I bought in. Maxine is not stupid, if there was cash going out to minority shareholders, she would be buying shares on market now. Instead the funds will be used for some other punt that no one but Maxine has thought of yet.