NEA 0.00% $2.10 nearmap ltd

math games

  1. 7,592 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 239
    Just examining the march Qrtly.
    Healthy revenues...Healthy cash flow.
    But something vital is missing.
    We don't have a clue about subscriber number ,however we can play some math games to find out.
    # Yearly subscription for 5 users is $6,460 ...Around $1,300/user/year....or roughly $100/user/month.
    # Yearly subscription for 20 users is $41,000....Around $2000/user/year....or roughly $170/user/month.
    # Average Yearly subscription/user is $1,650 ( Assuming a 50/50 mix)
    # Average monthly subscription/user is $135 (again 50/50 mix)
    # Qrtrly revenues $5.2m.
    # Number of users (assuming full yearly pay) is 5.2m/1650= 3151 users.
    # Number of users (assuming monthly pay) is 5.2m/135= 38,518 users.
    # We can safely assume that the March Qrtr revenues were lump sum yearly subscriptions for around 3000 users.
    # They need to grow subscription 10 fold to reach "success case" of 30,000 users.
    The next couple of Qrters should give us a clear indication about growth....I have opined (perhaps wrongly) that uptake of subscription will be peaking in the 1st few Quarters ,then plateau.
    We need to see at least 50% COMPOUND revenue growth in the next couple of quarters because it is a long way to grow 10 fold & we know it is inevitable that uptake will taper off down the track....Whoever really needs Nearmap will not wait months or years without such indispensable tool.
    I stand to be corrected on the numbers mentioned.



 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add NEA (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.