Matt Bohlsen, Seeking Alpha Post on ARL PFS, page-4

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sallywoofs

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30/03/18

08:51

Post #: 32137369
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Originally posted by Mellhurst ↑

2 hours ago (by Matt Bohlsen), on an open Seeking Alpha Article (Cobalt Miners News for the Month of March 2018):

All - Re Ardea's PFS - I think we need to take the longer term view here. The key phrase for me was - "We have already commenced initial DFS programs and a scoping study on an expanded 2.25 Mtpa production scenario being evaluated...... The 1.0 Mtpa base case was selected to minimalise initial funding requirements given the current market capitalisation of Ardea. A larger scale project is potentially fundable with a consortium of strategic partners assisting in development of the project as the resource base at Goongarrie is large."
Also, the PFS is taken using only 5% of their total resource. Agree the 2023 timeline issue may have been an issue for the sell off.

---

Matt Bohlsen is clearly still bullish on Ardea, but not enthusiastic about the 2023 timeline. He mentions no problem with any PFS numbers, but does basically state the project is scaleable for a higher rate of return using more than the 5%. I guess this means bulls here were right that management truly was aiming to use the PFS to show the majors to show their current profitability at smaller scales and with zero hype, which is a responsible approach if not one most retail shareholders would not appreciate. On the other hand if Bohlsen doesn't have any problem with the way the maths were presented in the PFS then it seems the more bearish opinions here were correct that imagining the company just horribly misrepresented themselves was wishful thinking.
Well, this is just me interpreting a true expert, I could be easily wrong.

Anyway, Bohlsen is pretty much the #1 mining authority in my opinion, second only to Joe Lowry in Lithium (and he got Lithium X right over Lowry).

Anyway keep what he said was key in mind:
"I think we need to take the longer term view here. The key phrase for me was - "We have already commenced initial DFS programs and a scoping study on an expanded 2.25 Mtpa production scenario being evaluated......"

We have the scale and things should look better. Time is on our side.
Hopefully management can manage to get the timescale back to 2022.

- Happy Easter everyone!

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Bohlsen reads about miners and publishes for a living. He needs to be evaluated like any other reference.
I wouldn't take anybody's opinion as gospel. Not Bohlsens, not anybody's. Not Casey (whose macro ideas I like), not Katusa, not Stansberry, not Rickards, nobody.

Check IKN if you want unvarnished tell-it-like it-is analysis.

Everybody makes mistakes.

If Bohlsen reviews a company it is probably worth checking into. DYOR.

Cheers

ARL Price at posting: $1.26 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Matt Bohlsen, Seeking Alpha Post on ARL PFS, page-4

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