matter of time, page-4

Hammers,

Just to put a bit of perspective on that.

NDO has 3.72 X's more shares on issue than MAD, so if we divide the $1.34 MAD sp by 3.72 we would get an NDO sp value of 36c, but...

Here's what todays MAD reserve figures were estimated at..
P90 (1P).. 102.3 mmbbls (proved)
P50 (2P).. 192.2 mmbls (proved + probable)
P10 (3P).. 344.3 mmbbls (proved + probable + possible)

NDO has through Galoc (net)
P90 (1P).. 1.27 mmbbls (proved)
P50 (2P).. 3.07 mmbls (proved + probable)
P10 (3P).. 4.34 mmbbls (proved + probable + possible)

So, if we were to take it to the next mathematical level, we'd be multiplying 36c by 1.24% (ratio between the P90 proved reserves), and the sp figure for NDO on a like for like basis would read....$0.0044 (not quite half a cent).

Now either NDO is overvalued by 10 X's, or MAD is undervalued by about the same, but this is on a purely mathematical basis, and I suppose this proves that that type of basis has no place in the market.

The stock will be what the market says it will be.

Some other things to consider..
MAD will be around for a long time pumping 20 bopd, NDO wont be round for long pumping 1,450 bopd.
The market therefore places reserves at a higher priority than daily production...and so too do other companies on the prowl.

Disclosure: No other exploration potential of either company was taken into account in formulating this perspective.