maul prospects now we are getting serious

Hi BRR

Your topic on the Maul prospects (excellent post BTW) is too important to continue under a churn/rights heading, so I hope you don't mind that I have responded with a more suitable heading.

First of all, I love all your research, now you are 'converted' these days. BTW I thought you were a Barrister - the case load must be a bit light these days heh heh!

Your assessment that the Maul will be the big game changer for MST is undoubtedly CORRECT. For your info I did stand up on the floor at a meeting 18 mths-2yrs ago and commented then that the Company could obviously be enormously successful 'JUST' producing Maul for the global enforcement/policing market, even if they were not also going to break into the military markets (which they are). I recall management acknowledged the point, but were obviously well aware of it anyway. It has just taken this long to fine-tune and hone the product for the market's genuine needs - no worries there from me - I'm just thrilled we have actually got to that point now.

A few other brief points I would offer:

1. I recall that the USA at top level has to approve where the Maul is allowed to be sold globally (because they make the carbon fibre barrel tubes in the States). I don't have an issue, but I 'think' it means the product will be a player for the 'good guys' ie. the West, but will never be available legally to the 'bad guys' that might want to mess you up in Somalia etc. Fair enough I reckon.

2. I don't believe the product will EVER be legally available to the public i.e. the private duck shooters and hunters will have to pass. Similarly the general public in Australia can probably relax if the local SWOT squad has them, but won't wash the idea that someone holding up a Gold Coast video store has one. Fair enough again - and I say that even though I have a strong hunting background. On the other hand, IMHO it is a whole different ball game with the USA culture - where every police officer in every town will probably seek and get a 'personal' Maul issue.

3. On a similar vein - the barrel length is so short that we are realistically and clearly talking strengths in dealing with bad people up close (not to mention having tasers and stuff that don't apply on the average duck hunt.... and door breaching and so on as per MST's design roles for the Maul - spot on.

4. I believe it will be no accident that the cost of the Maul is likely going to come in as affordable for the military and enforcement agencies, but very significantly higher than budget shotguns that private people buy.

5. Also, it will be no accident that the cost of the stacked round disposable barrel tubes will be affordable for the military and enforcement agencies, but prohibitive compared with a box of current Winchester shotgun shells for the plebs.

6. Reflecting again on no private sales - I wouldn't worry for a moment - the global market for the enforcement/military in the West will be ...er...modest in Australia, but GIGANTIC overall.

7. I take the opportunity again to 'dip my hat' at Lee's razor/razor blade model with the weapon AND the ammo poised to make a unique profit story for the Company in the enforcement/military market. For this very reason - I believe applying LTI's market PE ratios of 17/33 for 'defence stocks' will actually prove to be even more lucrative for the Company - because I reckon those traditional PE ratios will be based on the wrong model - i.e we have a razor/razor blade model. Sheesh man - this is looking a bit jaw dropping in future? What a no-brainer to buy in at anywhere under a cent. Not wishing to overstate anything, but the 'moment' the first big contract is landed, I would expect the whole leader board to slide up to a whole heap of new levels.

8. All this is great - especially 4, 5, 6, and 7 - for shareholders who want a 'very' successful and profitable company.

9. Not only do shareholders 'want' a very successful and profitable company - THEY ARE GOING TO GET ONE commencing later in 2012!!

Good Luck to everyone - we are entering very, very exciting times.