Maund's article is interesting, however, it seeks to brush over some very real undercurrents out there.
Too many people are fixated on the impending collapse of the US$ and its likely replacement by the EURO (etc).
Many more question any recovery movement in the US$ as being superficial, without substance, and unlike anything that would otherwise be justified by the EURO, etc.
The effective dismissal of the French vote on the EU Constitution is feeble, to say the least.
In the last 3 days, there have been 2 referenda in Europe on the new EU Constitution - the French, and the Dutch.
Both, as strong advocates of the new Constitution expected popular support in their respective referendums.
Both, missed out.
The French voted down the EU Consitution by 57% (that's actually a higher absolute number than in any referendum vote ever cast in Australia).
Now, overnight, the Dutch have also voted NO to the new Constitution.
The reality of the new emerging Europe is this: 1. The surrender of sovereignty to the Centre (ie: the EU in Brussels) has now passed its peak; 2. many in Europe are now questioning the effective demise of local national identities, etc; 3. going into the EURO has done nothing to envcourage /secure reform in Europe, Indeed, the greatest level of reform in Europe in the past 7-8 years has been in the non EURO countries of Sweden, and Britain; 4. Germany's unemployment rate is now at its highest since the 1930s; 5. the EURO has effectively crippled the Italian economy whilst doing nothing to sustain either the Mediterranean countries, or central Europe; 6. rather than becoming a stronger force, the greatest risk to Europe now is the likely break-up of the EURO which could well gather force over the next 2-3 years. Indeed, unless Sterling formed part of the EURO (which it did not), the EURO was eventually doomed to fail.
Keeping the EURO together in the foreseeable 2-3 years is a much greater challenge. So, I would not quite yet be ready to give up on the US$.
The fact is, Europe is as fractured today as it has ever been, but this timeround it has been adversely impacted by a weakened Germany and an insipid France. Just ask this of any of the Italians, Greeks, Spanish, Portugese, or of the Beneleux members.
