maximise expected utility?

Ok, we all know where NRT is up to.

The question is, what is fair value?

I have to say, if there is any chance Phenoxodiol will be approved, even 5%, then the price is just way too low.

On approval, if it happens, NRT could be worth a big sum indeed. But what is the chance it happens? It all comes down to OVATURE, and the delays have cause pain by way of a lower price.

In my mind, if approval is possible, then the price should be many multiples higher. Why isn't it higher? I think due to investor sentiment... who really believes approval can happen?

I can say that stocks like DNDN warrent a multi billion cap. So... if... and it's a big if... NRT can get approval then there is a very big upside. But what's the downside? Cash backing? A discount to cash backing?

We'll find out in a few months when Phase III is released. I'm quietly confident that some success will be visible. Hopefully enough for approval.

Any other thoughts?