maxine mckew set to lose bennelong

Roy Morgan conducted a poll last evening which show Maxine McKew is set to lose Bennelong to John Alexander (Lib).

"A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted tonight (August 17, 2010) in the key NSW Marginal electorate of Bennelong where Labors Maxine McKew ousted former Prime Minister John Howard at the 2007 Federal Election shows Liberal 50.5% (up 1.9%) set to defeat the ALP 49.5% (down 1.9%) a 1.9% swing since the 2007 Federal Election.

Analysis by Gender reveals that in Bennelong the ALP is still benefiting from a Gender Gap with women supporting the ALP 50.5% cf. Liberal 49.5% on a Two-Party preferred basis, but not enough to deliver the seat to Labor. Among men Liberal 51.5% is ahead of the ALP 48.5%.

Looking at primary voting intention shows Liberal 46% (up 0.5% since the 2007 Federal Election), clearly ahead of the ALP 40% (down 5.3%). The primary vote of the Greens is 10% (up 4.5%) and Independents/Others 4% (up 0.3%) (The Green vote in Bennelong is the same as the Sydney Metropolitan Green vote (10%) measured last weekend by the Australia-wide Morgan Poll)."

2PP Based green pref @ 80% and Other @ 40%

Cheers
Muzz