Hey Slick, great to see you back Sir... Plenty of white noise here, don't let it phase you.. Twas the same at the Colosseum before the games begun..
As for providing, no doubt those skilled in the art of TA have made money trading the short term fluctuations.. I don't have the skill nor the time to devote to screen watching but I did sell every spike on the run up in Jan - Mar (Also bought back in way to quickly but we'll get to that in a moment) and know of a friend who turned $57 into $500k in that 8 week push, as well as a another who pulled a $400k day on the day it blew off, so yes ol Krakatoa has been a fertile ground for some time. I've picked a fair few 10x in my time but it's not always that you get to ride them out.. Quite a few you end up selling along the way only to kick yourself.
There's no way I would have held LTR, BRM, CHN, MEI long term as something would have spooked me but with those that lift and lift hard in a 3-6M window it's a sweet sweet ride.. Yes Sir it is.. WA1 is one that did get away however as I called it jokingly and then watched it run like a bi*** true to form... ffs. I mean the ticker alone was worth 50c hahaha
Looking back I should have offloaded here again at 12c and then again at 11.5 but we funnymentalists are eternal optimists.. It's the only way you see value, else everywhere you look the sky is falling or the boogey man is gonna take your money..
And if anyone wants to know who the boogey man is, well he's the entity that gts out of bed at 10.55 each day and steals your god damn nest eggs.. That's who he is. 7M Shares trade between 11 and 12 and look at the min max price split.. Honestly it aint hard to work out wht's going on hahaha
And here you get stories of dusters, drilling on, failed tests blah blah blah... It's simply that in the wake of any update (and I wouldn't have released on a day like today either after the yanks crapped the bed) people start to believe the stories in their head, at which point the MM pumps a few flutter trades through the ol Chi-x a whattya know "Here have me shares mister" says little Oli Garch as he soils his britches and runs off to check on his stamp collection.. Claiming never again in O&G it's too risky... !
Have a look, umpteen PS announcements didn't do a damn thing until the first real oil show and then it only took 9 ann to go 1000% in 8 weeks.
Last PS ann was on the 21st of July (where everything was as good as it could be) and the Sp was 9c, today the SP is ????? 10c
Now Fundamentally these blokes will know more than most I guess and have the inside angle on AP's thoughts.
"We initiated on Melbana Energy Ltd (ASX: MAY) on 6th June with a Speculative Buy rating and valuation of $0.21/share. At that time MAY was gearing up for its drilling campaign in Cuba targeting the Amistad, Alameda and Marti Reservoir in Block 9."
So when they come out in the space of eight weeks and up the valuation from 21 to 23c based solely on the fact that;
"We have updated our valuation target for Block 9 PSC by increasing the prospective resource of the Amistad interval from 88 mmbbl to 103 mmbbl."
Most significantly, the drilling campaign in Cuba has revealed a previously unexpected characteristic of the upper Amistad interval. During its production test, Melbana was able to flow oil to surface without external assistance. This translates to self moving hydrocarbons on that level. Where this is important is that, prior to drilling,Melbana assumed a very low chance that this section would flow unassisted and as such did not include the section when calculating and publishing its Prospective Resource of the Amistad Structure and consequently total volumes of Cuba Block 9.
The unexpected productive interval of Amistad has been assessed at 64m TVD and now needs to be reconsidered/analysed by Melbana as it now has a much greater chance to be developed in the future, a nice problem to have.
Then they are attributing a 17% increase or uplift in value, by way of increased resources to the tune of 15mmboe (88-103) just for the bit nobody even looked at before due to the very low chance...
Now I may be reading that wrong, but that's what it looks like to me? I mean they got that figure (of an extra 15mmboe) from somewhere?
Which if you look at the Mcdaniels Mean Av 119mmboe it prob sits about right and no one need put their right nut on the line for estimates sake..
And seeing as how it (The Report) was released only 3 days ago I'd say they'd know damn well that the hole is now way past the last call of 1597 metres and most prob at TD having run logs / tests what ever..
The also use the words production test, not flow and I guess the 15mmboe remains speculative along with the buy recommendation until they run wirelogs.. Wouldn't want to get ahead of ourselves now would we?
Over to you Slick ma boy... You tell ol h8tey at what point past 21c she starts to get toppy and then more importantly where should I park the truck?? hehehe
Fertile ground this mate, just comin into season...
For any who don't know what ongoing results look like on a short to medium term catalyst plot... hehehe
Then again, who knows with this market what will happen....?
This is all for a bit of fun... def not advice so dyor... & gltah h8tey
