lets talk macro:
china is stuffed:
every property developer there is just about bankrupt. the sheer size of their debt is mind boggling, makes the GFC debt crisis look like a rounding error. Contagion is imminent (imho). Smart $$ has been leaving for years. Ponzi schemes, shadow banking etc all unravelling - fast. HUGE globally ramifications. Bubble burst will hit everything from commodities (already has), OIL to asset valuations, not to mention the massive financial meltdown.
Meanwhile: Dow Jones
from strength to strength! and yet, they sneeze, our mkt sh$tes itself....begs the question - they havent suffered a fall. not once since COVID. so what will happen to our mkt when they eventually catch up to the world? their moment of reckoning cant be far off......should the DOW drop 10k points (-30%) then where will our mkt be (down -50%)?
keep seeing RED across my entire portfolio. none are really correlated-deliberately so, for risk mitigation, and yet....
. been tempted to sell the lot and go 100% ca$h. When the Dow/Nasdaq has its day of reckoning, or the asian debt issue spreads, how far and fast will our asx fall??
back to May:
- currently mkt sentiment driven. asia dragging us down-big time.
- POO is great, but without production, and fast, we'll never be linked
- no change to reserves - once this hits, should likely re-rate
- no known dev plan, costings, timelines (which are never accurate-mngt terrible at this)
- A3 success is essential (stating the obvious). we know its turbo charged, but by how much/quality? Looks like a 6-month process (at least) based on the time A2 took. Jun24 if we are lucky (with Nov spud - not holding my breathe)....never knew it'd be this slow...!
marriage of the two - i suspect given the delays to production of A2, completion of A3, our SP will continue to be subject to the asia property debt pullback and possible contagion...
downside scenario: where will our SP drift to in a mkt contagion enviro?
Upside catalysts: what will reserves, prod updates and success at A3 do to our SP?
expected outcome weighted toward the down purely based on timing. Reserve aside, the other news wont be known or validated for over half a year.....
come on AP - pull thee rabbit we all need out of the hat....
(20min delay)