MAY (ASX) May Chart

Originally posted by Hateful8: ↑

"All they want is for the fundamentals to finally stack up"

Hey Slick, at $259m and with the bit spinning on the second hole of this campaign MAY is trading at potential under $1aud a barrel.

I say potentially because despite the fact I heard AP agreeing first hand to the audience presumptions of what the 5 fold increase in net pay zone meant to the initial recoverable estimates at the AGM. It remains for McDaniels to sign off on those same estimates that AP also stated had been analysed and formatively estimated by the Errol, Peter et all. Whether that is a funny mental that needs stacking wo knows but the igv of the potential looks a little skinny by simple math. The risk to not achieving shouldn't be weighing on things that heavily IMO, but I'm not the market.

The market as we're told is this all knowing entity that never gets it wrong or so we're lead to believe.

The old market, maybe.. The current one seems more like a bit coin boy scout jamboree where long term holds are measured by the 5 minute chart and ergo group sentiment, not any equation bearing "funny mental value - less risk of not achieving that value / over time = ?" as the deciding factors is the underlying basis of the SP..

More fanboy than fundamental but hey, that's the market we're in so I either get to know it or I get the hell out right?

The fundamentals are stacked and ready to roll.. The sentiment however is a sea of drunken sailors all Dutch Ruddering away with each other looking for direction whilst selling anything that looks like a rising pip to cover rent. I jest of course but that's how it seems IMO.

Now for the fuzzymentals or the upcoming potential in other words..

Alameda-3 will test the lower two geologically independent oil-bearing intervals designated Alameda and Marti, respectively (see Figure 1). The Alameda-1 exploration well encountered movable hydrocarbons accompanied by significant formation pressure in both intervals.

Above is where they are headed.. Below is why and what we can reasonably expect to encounter again this time knowingly. !!

1. Alameda-1 is on trend with the nearby Varadero oil field, reported to contain 11 billion barrels of oil in place and responsible for tens of million of barrels of oil production since its discovery in the 1970s;
2. biostratigraphic analysis of samples taken in the N interval indicate a reservoir of similar age to the most productive sections of the Varadero field;

3. formation pressures encountered whilst drilling the N interval are significantly higher than that which exists in Varadero; and,

4. logs of the N interval have revealed pervasive natural fracturing, an important characteristic in carbonate reservoirs for assisting the natural flow of oil into the well bore. As an example,Figure 1 shows a resistivity image of the well bore (generated by the FMI logging) covering a small but representative part of the prospective N objective which demonstrates the presence of conductive fractures.

After reviewing the logging data acquired recently across the N interval, commencing at a depth of 2,878 mMD (2,791 mTVD), the preliminary assessment is that this interval contains net hydrocarbon pay of about 100 mMD (88 mTVD) in aggregate across a gross reservoir interval of about 560 mMD (495 mTVD).

The following factors raise expectations for the commercial recovery of the oil encountered in the N Structure to date

Area Melbana are drilling in is predominantly either red or blue but as we know the sulfur content tested so far is well below traditional values. As for grade and pressure, who knows this is Cuba after all and each hole is different. I know because I was told by the drilling manager before he flew out to do just that, drill it..

As for grade and pressure it is anyone's guess but shite don't get to surface from 3k down without something shoving it and I'm happy with a range for now of between 24 and 32 lets call it?

Fundamentally they are looking at a very reasonable chance of hitting the same oil-bearing structures for a second time using what is essentially a twinned hole strategy, now with local downhole knowledge from previous successful attempt.

Fundamentally they are also wearing a register of 3.3b soi held by a chicken little led cohort who will drop you as soon as IVZ stirs a pip whilst MAY drops accordingly.. Like when they all rush to one side of an over crowded ferry you are bound to wallow around in some chop which is then magnified by the antics of said lemmings.

Personally there's only one entity we should concern ourselves with and that is Sonangol..

Do we honestly think that a $40B+ Vertically Integrated National Oil Company with ties to Cuba that date back 60Y would still be hanging around if there wasn't a significant incentive to do so?

And do we honestly believe they will sit around and not help to get the oil out of the ground when it is time to do so?

No.1 target of 4 in the No.1 area zone for prospectivity with historical pressure and grade samples at depth and visible at surface.

Fundamentally we're screwed, obviously . Better off backing the last at Dapto!

Sentimentally I'll have a few bob each way on the favorite and hope we can send this Doge to tha MOON!! ;-) gltah Mh8ties

And tell us when the golden toss thingy is in play can ya champ.. ? Cheers hehe

What does vertically integrated mean in respect to a global oil company? Anyone?

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Hi H8tey =

Without a doubt the post of the year so far!! Didn't take you for the shy retiring type - would have been great to meet you at the Agm, maybe next one between quaffing a quality drop of our chosen tipple whilst puffing on one of Cubas' finest........this is shaping up to be a massive year in the history of Meo/ Melbana and you can still grab some more under 10 cents - muchos Gracias Senor

Keep up your wonderful insights and unique analysis

Cheers Ort