I started selling. I think the register is mainly retail shareholders, they cannot all get out at the same time. I am happy to leave some on the table.
I understand W3hunter thinks wave 3 is not tradeable, (
68705977), sure, but I would rather sell into strength.
RSI has reached "overbought" territory.
Andrew Purcell (executive chairman of ASX:MAY) said "that's not going to require any more cash until we see oil flowing out of the ground". This alludes to a possible credit raise after the appraisal or even anytime after now (I believe he may try to credit raise as he did before, during peak oil shows).
Specifically:
Host: "Is the company likely to explore another capital raise any time soon and how are you positioned financially for next year's appraisal program?
Andrew Purcell: "No capital raise needed, we've got plenty of cash in the tin, and we're fully funded for this appraisal program, and that's not going to require any more
cash until we see oil flowing out of the ground, and then at that stage hopefully we're funded thereon if this all works as well as we'd hope." source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy, Investor Stream, Nov 15 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrJ5J5hf9c&t=591s&ab_channel=InvestorStream
Also the results so far... according to Andrew Purcell's own words: "Good appraisal equals production if you are putting it on extended flow tests in particularly..." source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy, Investor Stream, Nov 15 2022. Amistad 1a failed to yield a flow rate. An extended flow test was most likely impossible.
Previous analysis has been with WTI etc. ( -see VOGC analysis:
61276815 ) WTI is approximately 40, whereas Amistad 1a is 11.7 (less valuable crude compared to the WTI).
The biggest problem is the outstanding shares in my opinion. Regardless of what the oil might be worth, there may be a saturation of at the very least, retail shareholders. The hysteria in March 2022 led to around a $575mil market cap, the same thing now might be a $0.17/share price with the dilution since then. I might leave some for a 50% capital gains tax discount and the possibility of the $0.17/share, but unfortunately, the enthusiasm isn't what I expected. It will likely be unable to exceed 17cents and stay consistently above it, in the long term with this level of enthusiasm.
I think the results for Amistad 1b/2/3, Alameda and Marti are slowly getting priced into this share price.
(20min delay)