You make some interesting comments, and I would like to add my tuppence into the mix.
Your points in summary:
1. MAY has reached 'overbought ' territory.
That's clearly for the TA commentators, certainly not my area whatsoever.
2. MAY will need to raise more cash, and that will lead to more dilution.
Actually I don't disagree with you on this point, but only on the timing of such, and pricing.
The encountering of a shallow heavy crude around 500 metres will likely become the focus of a separate project, and ultimately will add to the cash burn.
My view is that MAY will seek to delineate the extent of that shallow resource, thus will embark on a specific geophysical programme for starters (not huge costs), and once visualisation has been completed look towards a focused shallow drilling programme thereafter if viewed favouably (bigger expenditure). I can't see that drilling happening, if it is carried out, though for at least 6 - 9 months, depending on timing and results of the geophysical programme, and rig availability.
AND if this additional drilling proceeds it will ultimately ADD to future cash reserves - this would be classified as development/production drilling, not exploration. Thus it ultimately becomes accretive to cash position.
This shallow resource, not yet quantified, potentially could ADD considerably to the total resources, AND allow a rapid move into oil production for MAY!
Other than that the current drill programme of A-2 & A-3 has already been factored into the budget.
3. "I think the results for Amistad 1b/2/3, Alameda and Marti are slowly getting priced into this share price."
Obviously as the share price moves up there is a "pricing in" of the various resource components. Whilst the share price remains around the current level, of 10.0 - 10 5 cents, there is no additional "pricing in" to the share price that's already occurred.
This is the crux of the argument. Is MAY fully priced, based on what we currently know about the resource? IMO, no I believe it's got much further to go, and your view is that its already about at its limit.
Everyone's view is obviously dependant on a number of factors, not always technically (fundamentally or chart) based, others relate to risk appetite, and money management. At the moment my technical view remains that MAY has got a long way to go, and I'm all in.
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