lol you just beat me to it.
From my previous April charts post.
“So ignoring the negativity due to the lack of any meaningful announcement ( or any other type ) & just looking at the chart, I would expect to see a retest of the previous support at $0.10.
I am basing this assumption on the sp having reached the expected downside target on lower volume & making a hammer type candle and a rally off the target line is generally what I have come to expect from my boxes.”
So sticking to that theme of just looking at the chart, that turned out to be an interesting week chart and volume wise and I believe there was a verification that the attempt to drive the sp down has again failed.
The previous Friday’s hammer candle was the initial signal of support & imminent reversal.
This was followed on Monday & Tuesday by a new low being made on lower & lower volume and ultimately supported on the base of the range box.
Wed we had the gap lower on open which closed & finished higher making the outside day candle. This also made the lowest low since July 2014 when the sp initially started the run up into the $0.50’s.
The low this week was on very low volume & signalled the reversal.
As per my hopeful expectation, the sp has reversed & in doing so has exceeded the retest target by closing at the top of the box at $0.115.
Fridays break out was on 2 ½ times the 34 day average.
Looking at the chart it appears to be in the early stages of a solid run & my initial eyeball interpretation is that it will continue.
However we are still firmly in a down trend & I am also confident that my boxes work often enough that I would now have an expectation of a pull back from the box top at some stage of this run & retest the base of the box which would also close Friday’s gap before another attempt to breakout.
This would be a strong signal & preferably should happen very early in the week and on significantly lower volume.
A good quality announcement however (or the expectation of one) & that gap may never be closed but in its absence my expectations are as per the normal trading pattern.
When the sp breaks above the box the next target would ultimately be to the next top at $0.14.
The weekly chart is also very promising with the sp closing right at resistance of $0.11 & in a potential congested are formed by the various converging trend lines. By weeks end we may have pushed through that area into clear going above $0.14.
It has that “right” feeling about it, but one has to be realistic and expect that this rally has the fingers of the mm all over it so be prepared for anything.
We may be on the verge of breaking the down trend, but I am mindful of the failed breakout back in march though.
