thehound,do you really think that shorters, institutions and...

thehound,

do you really think that shorters, institutions and other dominant market players are getting caught by the announcement of a rail deal? I doubt it. These guys are usually in the know.

I would suggest a rail deal is imminent when the short positions disappear or at least be much smaller then they are currently.

Of course the same is not true for a surprise positive announcement which is impossible to predict.