May Train has just pulled into Risk verse Reward Station, page-166

The way I see our current situation is we have 2.5b barrels of oil in place in the upper sheet (Amistad), or the 119m barrels reported at 5% recoverability.
I can only see that 119m number growing with the potential of a higher recovery rate based on porosity, fractures or API improvements to Cuba's average recovery rate of 5%.
Forget Marti for now and consider the Alameda section that is about to be flow tested. This section is most likely larger than the upper sheet based on previous announcements, and should have even lighter oil (higher recovery rate) under more pressure.

In my uneducated in oil and gas view, we could easily have around 250m barrels of oil recoverable, from my estimate of 5b barrels in place for the first 2 sections.
I'll go out on a limb and suggest 10% recoverable on average making it 500m barrels. With a 70/30 split for the JV on 67.5% of the recovered oil after PSC, we will see just over 20% to MAY.
This would be around100m barrels to Melbana, at AU$10 per barrel in ground value, we could have $1b MC easily (30c SP), plus Marti and Zapato to add, huge.

This to me is why we are seeing such a big effort to accumulate at a low price while they can.
They money knows this is already a winner imo, but it doesn't suit them if retail wont sell, so we see some fears played on and shake outs before results send us to 30c+ soon.