The question that really needs answering is what is currently underpinning the Morningstar valuation of $0.173. Obviously reservoir P - rating which will require certified logging results. Logging could not be completed last time hence the requirement for a sidetrack.
I believe successful logging results will lead to a reservoir rating - this would be seen as a plus and would / should hold current SP
Successful flow testing - this would be paramount to ascertain reservoir pressure and oil grade - this would underpin the SP $0.23 upwards
Has the original timeline for production being factored into the valuation for production to commence in May. If production did not commence as stated, it could very well impact cashflow for the drilling of other wells. If there is insufficient cashflow, there will be a fund raising or additional dump of shares on the market which would put downward pressure on the SP.
There are lots of scenarios all linked together for the valuation and logging, flow test and confirmation on production date is the expectation that the market is waiting for in the next media release. If these are not delivered as expected, there very well may be some downward pressure on the SP. There could be some bargain buying opportunities to be had on negative news but this is certainly a long term investment.
Only my rambling observations - please do not act on any of the above and do your own research
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