Listened to the Money of Mine Alphamin restart talk yesterday & definitely concur it is a very complex & uncertain issue. Have been following Critical Threats along with other media & still think there is a long way to play in this conflict. Few points of interest:
# The road which ships supplies through to Uganda is over 1200km's long. Comments from a November, 2024 site visit by Hallgarten & Co are as follows: "the section between Kisangani and the Ugandan border is the most heavily trafficked and thus the most prone to massive truck back-ups should a section of the route become a quagmire and trucks (not necessarily those from Bisie) get bogged down. Sometimes as many
as 200 trucks can be backed up by an incident. Further problems are created by containers (and their trucks) not being able to return to be reloaded as
scheduled, which thus compounds the problem. Interestingly management said that the task is made more complex because the parts where problems
might arise at a given time are not necessarily where one might have identified a potential problem. The incessant rainfall of the region makes flooding a constant factor, but where the problems will arise next remains the great unknown". The map below shows the route they take.
M23 update from yesterdays critical threats site yesterday stated that the rebels were moving north (nearly at Butembo). I suspect they will keep moving North to try & block off supply (negotiation tool & limits confrontation as the DRC militia have a variety of mobility issues in this difficult terrain). I am not sure if Alphamin will attempt to try another alternate route but it does have it's complexities/cost. I suspect M23 have a great agility to change strategy as witnessed in their goodwill or strategic withdrawal from Walikale.
Worth an interest read in the 2024 site visit of Hallgarten & Company. Also comments on Goma which appears to be living on limited time due to the possibility of a "Limnic eruption" style of event (scary).
https://hallgartenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Alphamin_MineVisit_2024.pdfIt is a very complex issue with Boulas (Trump's son in law) recently visiting the DRC to obvious gain some advantage in minerals, DRC government move to restrict China's dominance in the area & the previous president Kabila refuting that he has links with M23. Kabila stated the DRC had deteriorated considerably & the problem was deep seated, complex & intimated it would be very difficult to repair. A lot of power struggles, various forces at play and as MOM stated, no one knows. Some of the above is based on some of my interpretations & postulating of course.
(20min delay)