Great to see a few buyers in action - Sellers need you. That begs the question of course who are the sellers. If this deal does go through,time to wonder who will be buying and selling to balance their holdings,especially if the ASX 300 is dropped as a result as hinted in the analysts report..
THEY HAD TO POINT IT OUT.
They were paid to say it was a good deal and they said so in the least damaging possible minimalistic way,but had to point it out,to cover themselves.
Some buyers will have to sell as a result just of that before December end in anticipation of the re weighting of the index.. They won't wait.That's the least of the sell down worries.
I suspect any investment trusts which have held shares might be too.That's possibly 12.5% of 8 BN shares
or 1 BILLION BEING DUMPED-STUFF THE PRICE.
examples of exit dumping by non mainstream TRUSTS and share price collapse close to home. AAM now STONE AXM before collapsing and heading into a limping rebuild?
You can then go to the B's if you want then there's CRE of course - DB 51%+ for $150?m cash injection to 30%(of $70m) before finding FML to take it off their hands for 7.5c a share now worth 3.5c.That WASN'T a trust by the way.That was a lumbering indecisive bank with its own problems,don't get confused-that was a direct bank investment,to be slowly flogged off to clients and on market.Killed the price though and that was only 150?m shares.
If i know anything about smaller INVESTMENT TRUSTS method of operation,then should the NO VOTE fail(if that's what they want) they will dump in an avalanche and take what they can get while they can, They will no longer be able to exert pressure or influence this board to maximize their value,or make changes by voting their block.As they amounted to most of the 25% vote to tip the board last time a year ago,then just maybe you'll get a super bargain at sub 3c soon.
NOW Get the reason for the FML enqiring phone calls about how your planning to vote.They will be well aware those trusts still holding need little in the way of a minority discontented vote to role this deal,to return their share value.They are worried and rightly so.No doubt the first arrival of small holders votes are negative at greater than the 25% needed.
If FML are willing to ignore them last time for so long,then where do you and i stand,when they only have to listen to Shandong?
The TRUSTS comments about lack of communication from FML have like our own gone basically ignored,no doubt while FML were cuddling up to Shandong,although the last set of accounts produced for this buy-out of control and quarterly show what they should and could have been producing to keep us informed. I feel like i might nearly know about half of what Shandong know about FML NOW. A truly well informed shareholder finally?I doubt it.
We all thought such tight lippedness was because something GREAT WAS HAPPENING AT COOLGARDIE or TI,or Laverton. Most of you did if your honest.
Many bought on this assumption,easily corrected with an adequate flow of information if the BOARD THOUGH FIT TO SUPPLY IT,which has only occurred this QTR. That's HIT 1 Pity i didn't get the breakdown on escalating costs until now to see where FML were heading that No doubt Shandong had some time ago.
It's great you think things will be better and your shares will rise in value straight after the yes vote. Think again. CRE had $210m in tax losses-why? Because it had $210m to spend without any need to be economical until it was too late,then they didn't have any money and then they gave a 2% royalty off the top for a $7m temporary loan that FML DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT when it took them over. That's HIT 2
Then there's FML's potentially fumbling the possible opportunity for compulsory acquisition(via debt conversion),just prior to the CRE delisting which would have heartened these trusts to give the board another tumble.Either way the lack of conversion left Stone with 14% instead of far less than 10% it would have had as a result- a no win situation for them,but a big win for FML shareholders if it was done. HIT 3
We've seen what FML does with cash,when its on the bones of its ass and if it hadn't we all know we wouldn't be staring at a 3.5c share and potentially less after a NO vote failure and the dumping of up to a billion shares ahead of us.FML has over committed at Laverton,injected extra FML cash and borrowed on its own account to shore up a 81% subsidiary that it should have got 100% control of with the issuing of around 200m shares,consolidated fully and added shareholder value,while starving Coolgardie of funds to produce more ounces at the same time. HIT 3+
Political change in China might mean a freeze on future funds for Shandong Gold.Just as Stone one day announces an appointment.then announces sorry nothing is confirmed yet.then nothing.All prior to this shift in power.
F&B's comments Post #: 8764177 hit the nail on the head.
Happy buying-it's hard enough resisting dumping which i should have done at 4.4c when this deal was announced. How many me's will add to the avalanche after the vote i wonder.I'm only staying to VOTE NO NOW,in the hope of recouping my investment when Shandong has to go to the market and BUY to get its compliant board and more importantly its operational ground staff to manage its impending acquisitions and future operations.
DYOR+DYODD Happy buying gents-your balls are bigger than mine with that BIG avalanche definitely coming if its a yes vote.If its a no there will be a wod of sellers too no doubt,bemoaning the loss of Shandong,until they come back with option #2,if they do.So much for enhancing shareholder value-AYE.Hope you've got enough cash to keep the share price up for when i and the trusts go.Anyone got $40m.That's right Shandong do.Cheap buy for them until they get a bit of seller resistance and have to REALLY START PAYING for FML? Maybe i won't sell just because of that hope,but the trusts certainly will if they lose,i have no doubt. Who set it up for Shandong so well by advancing GOVT approval in advance,giving them the front seat(or 51% block)in any future on market buy out without any shareholder premium - all in the name of adding to FML shareholder value? HIT 4
Nothing performance wise to recommend voting for the board over the last 18 months is there really? The ground staff have been exceptional and maybe that's why Pinto found them so despondent,seeing the buyers kicking tyres,knowing they were going to be sold out,but forbidden from speaking for fear of their jobs. HIT 5
So why in all honestly vote for this board? -ASK YOURSELF-What they have and haven't done to add to your shareholdings value over the last 18 months.I come up with absolutely nothing,but squandered opportunities to add to the value of my holding. I'll give them a plus for deciding to chase CRE initially,but since then they have not performed. That started with not tying down DB's shareholding and vote harder HIT 3 ++++++++ would have saved all the CRE hassle.
The coordinators of the holders of that 25% unaffiliated block between them will have a new board to present at the next meeting before you know it,who WILL MAXIMIZE THEIR HOLDINGS VALUE and SALEABILITY. I'm sure they have done the figures on Laverton stocks as i have and know what's potentially sitting there.Another reason why I'm sure Shandong will be back with option #2 Who suggested Mr Fromson? Shandong or them,i wonder?
FML Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)