ddzx - some of the things you post need more thought.
Firstly, it needs to be highlighted that you didn’t believe in HFR. At this point, we should all just forget anything you says - you missed the best performing resource stock of 2013/14.
Secondly, you state you are an old holder of AVY. Again, that says it all, as clearly you hate the fact that you chipped in money at 20c, and watched this drop away to below 1c. You mentioned that you participated at 1c, and has obviously sold out at 1.5c or something like that, and now regret it, and is trying to be the wet sail.
Thirdly, you states that McMaster and Wood sold out at 40 and 60c of HFR. Firstly, they didn’t sell out entirely, just enough to drop off the top 20 holders, and secondly they probably own some options. Additionally, Wood and McMaster are ground floor investors who set up shells and deal in assets and get them off the ground. They then recruit quality management teams who can further the project, and let others take the company to the next level. So it is now shock at all to see them selling out early. That is their game, and what they will always do.
You seem pre-occupied with the depth of the resource. We knew the depth from back when they acquired Sergipe back in March. Mirabaud knew this when its highly credentialed and well respected resource analyst team did thorough Due Diligence on the project and decided to go ahead with it. the high grade of their Sylvinite deposit will help overcome the depth issues, and that is clearly what Mirabuad has stated.
Do you know more than Mirabauds team of analysts? Obviously not.
Given you didn’t rate HFR, I would say that i will back Mirabaud’s guys over you any day of the week. You are a small time investor (who watched AVY go from 35c back to 1c and didn’t sell out – and has obviously sold out too early). So i would say that your investment credentials are highly questionable. I’d say that Mirabaud will be circulating their thoughts and analysis out to a much larger audience.
As at 2012, Taquari-Vassouras was producing at $174 a ton operating cost. You're also wrong when you said that in 2012 they extended the lease for 30 years, yet they are still scheduled to close by 2017/18. They extended the lease so that they could start work on the carnalita project. Granted this project has had issues, but u need to understand that Vale has no expertise at producing carnalite, and as such it is not so crazy that they would encounter some issues.
More important is Vale’s outlook on fertilizers generally, where they are forecasting 9% YoY growth in the industry and looking to invest more than $2 billion in the coming years. This in addition to their $5.8 billion purchase assets which now form Vale Fertilizantes. This tells you what Vale thinks of the Brazilian Fert space.
It will be the biggest growth game in resources anywhere in the world in the next 2-3 years (bigger than Mongolian coal circa 2010 in my view, since coal is now yesterday’s fuel, but potash will be tomorrows fuel (for crops that is) and no one has the potential to be the food basket of the world like Brazil.
HMI Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
