Maybe Cath didn't mislead us after all

Hi All

Discussion on the CR has focussed on Cath telling May's AGM and IPs that a CR would be best done off the back of good appraisal results. Some have expressed shock/disappointment that this did not occur - that the CR was pre-drill.

But is it? Yes, it was announced pre-drill, but shareholders have until 18 November to accept, just on three weeks away. And with Athena now pirouetting her way around the SNEs, is it not entirely likely we will hear something about drilling outcomes before 18 November? Some experienced commentators here have suggested as much. It could well be, then, that by the time we reach for our fountain pens to sign the rights cheque that we have a very good idea as to how SNE is going to pan out. That is, there is a good chance the CR will be post results of a sort. I suspect FAR will want this to be the case; I got the real impression board and management does appreciate the support of the shareholders who have enabled these massive discoveries and are looking to reward them.

Re-reading my AGM notes, I'm also convinced the SNE results will see the cat well and truly out of the bag and the tight hole policy in tatters. Chairman Nic said SNE would reveal to the oil world much more of what we have and was quite unequivocal in stating he expected to field serious offers this financial year.

... which is why I think the board opted to raise funds now - to extend our capacity to stay in the game long enough to achieve important short-term outcomes that could add immeasurable leverage to our position, namely:

> Three appraisals of SNE - which will I have no doubt result in a minimum 600m barrels and probably more.

> A third discovery, at Bellatrix.

> At least one peek into FAN. (Just what the heck did they find there - it is a bigger mystery than anything at this point).

> Seismic results from the Shelf, possibly it now seems including 'first impressions' of Djiffere.

> Reappraisal of GB seismic.

> Maybe acquisition of another block.

And all this now probably funded - and certainly so if, as is rumoured, we bring on board another cornerstone shareholder.

Things are really hotting up, aren't they? The queue of buyers looks to my eyes to be fidgeting evermore nervously. It won't take much, I fancy, to tip them into panic mode and see a quick cent or so added to the price pre any announcement of first results from SNE2. If I'm right about that, then the take up of the rights issue will be a no-brainer, with a premium of nearly 20 percent on the table.

Just as an aside, having promised to bear my derrière in Myer's front window if there were a TH this week, I am about to spend a nervous night, my sphincter tightening appreciably as the final hours tick by.

OOO