maybe some other fish flexing their teeth, page-9

you guys should be thanking me, because i am not a s/h, and as such your investment in MEL is sure to prove fruitful.

whilst some "pipples" have moved from other HC threads to the MEL thread, we all should welcome alternate opinions, because NONE of us have absolute knowledge of what will happen.

it really is a good timely reminder to consider what were/are the machinations occurring with other similar coys to MEL.

Witness each of ADE, ESG and BOW.

each of these situations are relevant to MEL.

1. ADE Pres 18 Oct 2011:

Shale Gas in Australia –Lessons from CBM ;

..The most profitable role for local companies is to establish initial resources/reserves –let others develop and produce...."

2. there was a big difference in 3P metrics between ESG (50c/gj) and BOW (16c/gj) - i am not comfortable why the huge difference.

3. we hear that BOW resource was not all it was claimed to be.

4 ESG was delayed in providing meaningful results to market.

5. given 3&4 above, it seems that the predators took advantage of the delays/disappointments to lob a bid.

6. each of three coys above did not get to production, or even development. they were takenout as per ADE statement above.

7. none of the baove three had a contested bid. so no bidding tension. Why? ?????

8. MEL situation may well be different. looking promising with both LNG and ERM taking positions.

9. both ESG and BOW are subject to anti-csg campaigners. MEL will be /is subject to same, if not worsening bad press - but it does not seem to have bluntened the interest of LNG or ERM!

10. ESG had STO as 20% holder and launched bid from position of strength. BOW had no major/big 3rd party s/h, but directors had big % (so Shell HAD to get their recommendation). Beach had 20% start, and grabbed another 20% s/h from Walker - so started with about 40%.

11 MEL s/be different with LNG at 10% (?) and ERM 7% (?) so you would think a deal would need to be done wrt gas supplies.

som its going to be interesting to watch progress- but MEL s/h should at least benefit from tension.

cheers