The SP two years ago is irrelevant. Back then it had appreciated...

The SP two years ago is irrelevant. Back then it had appreciated so quickly and all sorts of speculators got on board trying to get a quick buck. We all know (I hope) that is not how to invest (trading is a different story). The SP got way ahead of itself and any forward earnings multiples were huge.

Fast forward 2 years. The speculators have got bored and sold for a loss. There are obviously still plenty of weak hands hanging around. Not to mention trading activity. In the past 2 years the business has caught up to the expectation of 2 years ago. However, the market sentiment hasn't recovered and still hasn't given it credit on future earnings. It isn't ready for the next leg up in the cycle after a 2 year breather. Now management are slowly but surely releasing positive announcements into the market and it's only a matter of time until the tipping point is found. Once it is found there will be a significant rerate. The next leg up could be tomorrow or next year, but if you believe the story you want your shares in the bottom drawer today.

Now is the time to place your bets. If you are in the longshot camp you have some serious value on offer. If you are in the q camp, it is looking expensive and you might stay clear. If you are somewhere in between I think the SP in the mid to low 20s leans to the value side. The fact "the in between" leans towards value (IMO) indicates the market is still in the depressed phase and it'll catch up once the tipping point is found.

The argument that the market wants to see this or that is irrelevant - in the long term the market will get it right. No one knows the answer to what it wants now. We have to make an educated assessment of what we think the future will bring and compare it to what's on offer. 2 years ago that didn't look good. Today it does (IMO).