The bookbuild buying list is closed, no one left selling mbn stock, thats been evident for months now.
On plant shutdown day 15M shares traded flushing the SP 12.5c to 9.9c then hey presto back to 12.5c in arvo after all the nervous nellies got punk'd, I posted that thread you got punk'd again to show how buyers have been secretly accumulating all free carried stock in mbn.
We now know Wellington bought 80M shares from 27M to 107M from feb to today holding 11%, BCEE bought up to 5.6% or 58M shares, next 7 days they will have to both declare extra buying with market shut. A 3rd large buyer hovers around 4% imho below the 5% disclosure threshold.
these 3 large buyers have no stock on market to buy, managements scary anns n downramping have not moved the low volume, these secret buyers have nowhere to go other than get shares or finance to the board as the market is saturated n no sellers exist except at 14c 8M.
The buying book is closed, we now await the real secret plan soon to be revealed. These buyers were buying 10c to 15c on market, they see MBN MC is worth well above current trading, NP has hammered the ni sector yet mbn makes profit still.
cop now 3.91 with brl at 3.57, np at 4.53 n rising. Brl expected by socgen to collapse in weeks, just like the other brics currencies, us$ rising again.
User23, you cant use Q2 figures for current, np5.40, brl 3.07, cop 4.49uslb.
Now brl 16% lower np 16% also ie cop if 16% lower than 4.49= 3.71uslb, but sat 3.81, my est 3.91 av.
either way 3.71-3.91 v np 4.53 = profit of 82c to 62c or 14% - 18%
What ni producer at np of 4.53 is making profit of 16%? None
platts singapore research shows at np 4.53 85% of global ni producers are loss producing mainly chinese npi producers who are shuttering in droves with A 65% loss. Soon canada ni producers will start shuttering due to their high currency high wages like oz ni producers leading to the mother of all N3 eclipses.
mbn management will give these new buyers what they want, shares in exchange for funding, shares at 8.3c go to 83c better than a loan at 9% pa. They will paydown CNs as Griffiths stated of $95M n reducing monthly, ps not 183M by 2019 as wrongly assesed by some, then allow NHs to sell out, this bookbuild is closed. Sharply higher reopen imho.
the signs were-
- 3 large buyers with no shares on market to buy
- secret chinese offtake n shipping to lianyungang
- secret adding of staff from 540 Q1 to 600 Q2
- cop drop from 4.88 to 4.49 Q2,
- cash n profits cant be hidden anymore
- large unpaid chinese deliveries of $45M plus massive tailings ni conc 15000T cannot be hidden for another 2 months, these large sales n payments impending
- the manufactured cash shortage caused by their delayed receipt of chinese payments, n capex spend of $16M that was unnecessary causing an unnecessary finance need from large bank buyers.
mark this post, the offtake LT, sub buying, finance for cheap shares deal will be big, its been planed for 4 months now. No one can sell, buyers cannot buy.
Production continues, profits continue, chinese keep buying ni conc from mbn. Last 2 THs a 20 bagger n 4 bagger on reopen. Lets see what Wellington BCEE n chinas lianyungang values MBN at?
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