MBN Bookbuild is Closed, page-5

We cannot do anything right now, The MBN Bookbuild is closed. Those who wanted shares have taken their positions, the big boys now are in talks with management.

we and the other HC rebels, Wellington, BCEE & US NHs are locked in and cannot trade, nothing new, in fact there haven't been any shorts or traders, its been buyers v buyers other than some HC rebels sold down with extreme low volume.

We are at the mercy of the management who want finance in exchange for shares for Wellington, BCEE or the chinese offtakers.

5 weeks is a long time, all the deals will come together now, and the reason why wellington & BCEE have been buying heavily into MBN will be revealed just like the script.

Lets do a basic SWOT analysis

Management
positive- cop lower than np, rising production, massive tailings ready to ship, large payments incoming, chinese buyers constant, cashflow positive, buyers want MBN cheap stock, no current debt, no bond debt, no loan debt, lowering BRL, sharply lowering COP, lowering wages in US$ terms
negative- increased staff, now some on holidays, massive capex spend unnecessary, deflated lower cash position unnecessary, no stock liquidity on market to buy, low volume trading, past history

Wellington
positive- takes 11% holding secretly & quietly as planned, sees large undervaluation, wants more shares, has US$980B AUM, can provide finance, junk bonds, take larger cheaper chunk, swap out other US NHs
negative- cant buy any shares on market anymore, no stock to buy, cant swap CNs on its own, cant takeover on market, knows many US NHs want 50c,

BCEE
positive- access to massive finance, bonds, cash, best safest bank in Europe, wants more shares
negative- cant get any shares on low volume market, cant swap out CNs, needs board to step in

Chinese offtake buyers
positive - safe & stable supply, cheap, reliable, mines have not shuttered like in china NPI, will pay extra, has delayed payments to MBN on great terms to them, manufactured cash shortage, massive cash reserves
negative - port stocks at 40 year lows, desperately need ni conc, supply depleted globally, brasil imports doubled, onca puma vale mine shuttered

Brazil Govt
positive- more tax, more staff, more employment, no revolution, mine inspections all finished, can issue mine licences easy, wants MBN to ramp not shut, must have US chinese investors happily receiving positive returns, promotes more US chinese investment in brasil,
negative- BRL dropping, deep recession, highest interest rates in world, inflation elevated, risk of MBN sacking staff unfathomable, unemployment rising, cannot have mines shut, must do QE & cut BRL

On the balance, there is only 1 result possible from all of these competing interests :-
- MBN gets cash & finance, cash holdings rocket to US$100M
- Wellington/BCEE issues a new $100M CN paying out the old &/or a $20M junk bond/credit facility
- MBN pays out CNs due 2019 with cash as Griffiths stated
- MBN issues cheap shares to W, BCEE, chinese in exchange for cash
- chinese sign LT supply guarantee deal, prepay for deliveries,
- US NHs get paid out at market price
- SP spikes on reopen as dilution by 2019 of 500M-900M shares is gone forever

Or
- MBN runs out of cash temporarily as manufactured by them
- then receives $65M in the next few weeks and carries on as before
- Wellington BCEE get no shares
- BRL collapses anyway
- chinese run out of Ni conc, get no LT deal and forced to buy spot NP, NP rockets
- MBN SP spikes on NP spike BRL drop

Either way, now is the time to get in cheap for cheap shares before the BRL collapses further & NP spikes up.