Just looking into these 2 low cost nickel miners as i think they both stand to benefit a lot in the near and long term. I realise MBN's Santa Rita is a low grade operation and WSA Forestania/s are high grade. I was wondering does the grade matter that much if we know they will initially be producing similar amounts of concentrate p.a. at a similar cost and receiving a similar price for their product?
I been running some numbers on MBN and say we use their 27,000tpa (approx 39mill lbs p.a. of payable nickel) target to determine future earnings. Using price paid for product as $8US/lb and costs $4US/lb (they state less), after tax (they state probably 20% or less) and applying discount rate (say 12%) they'll probably make somewhere near US$90mill for 2011 (using x rate of .8 USD/AUD that number is ~AUD$112.5mill). If they keep the same amount of shares (ie 135.1mill fully diluted) then EPS will be somewhere near 83cps (in today's terms). Giving them a current PE of 4.44.
I haven't looked as deeply into WSA yet but using their projections from recent AGM preso. They may be producing 35,000tpa (roughly (guessed) 77mill lbs p.a. of payable nickel). Costs i used as US$3/lb, tax i used 30%, all else being equal. They'll make AUD$171.5mill, makes EPS 102cps (today's terms)(using 167.8mill shares). Giving them a current PE of 8.27.
I realise that technically a full DCF is more appropriate, but this is quicker, and i don't have all the info for WSA.
What i guess i want to know is, does grade matter, if the bottom line is similar or better?
Appreciate any comments. Calculations are quite rough but if any one can point out something wrong that would be much appreciated also
Cheers Skegsi
MBN Price at posting:
$3.80 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held