This is a low risk, high reward trade, I'm basically picking the bottom (or at least a solid temporary bottom)
Context: Price is in a down trend, which has based out since Feb with increasing volume. Big size has stepped in on numerous occassions and soaked up the selling and has steadied the trend forming this base.
Price dipped lower in mid-March, but got bought back up with strong volume intra-day to close higher.
Last week we experienced even more absorption and a strong buying day as price again attempted and failed to close lower. The buyers are clearly in control and the sellers are weak.
Charts: This is indeed an inverse Head and Shoulders reversal, added with volume makes it very bullish.
Trigger: The volume spikes that took place last week as price made yet another failed attempt to move lower.
As price attempts but fails to move a certain way more than once, it is very likely to break the other way.
Depth: As with all reversals, the depth is usually biased towards the current trend and as it turns around, the depth also turns the tables.
Currently bids and offers are roughly 1:1, and rest assured, this excludes the big buyers that created those volume spikes, as they were unlikely to be lining up in the bids and more likely to be using sophisticated orders (icebergs, accumulate etc) to be hidden from the depth.
Shorts: No short positions open (
Link), and none of my brokers allow short selling this stock, further easing future selling pressure.
Targets: Round number 50c seems like the first target it will test. 60c for the next. Very solid reward compared to the risk of the base.
Any thoughts or fundamentals you wish to add, feel free!
GLTA!
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