McGrath Nichols summonsed...., page-19

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natnicnak

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03/02/23

12:16

Post #: 66052985
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Originally posted by optimistus: ↑

I must confess I haven't done the detailed numbers on those scenarios; at least partly because the number of potential variables has become too great.

However I think you're being a bit simplistic because the implication in your two scenarios (in your question) is that current or new management are successful in transitioning to that new state without major changes in structure/Capital. If that were possible then as implied in your question, the share price would likely be some positive multiple of the present share price. That was also my expectation at the time of my original investment (possibly complemented by some modest preemptive Capital Raising by current management).

Unfortunately there's now the possibility of scenario 1 a). Return to Domestic Retailer with some form of fire sale of overseas assets (and possible injection of Capital).

Or possibly 2a) Stagger on and dig a bigger hole (for as much as 6-12 months) to the point that significant external Capital is required.

The outcomes for current holders in these 1a and 2a scenarios could be "ok" for current holders depending on when the decision was taken or potentially very poor if current management dig a bigger hole in the interim.

Suffice to say that at 45c I was happy to have a highly speculative (my words at the time) punt but with a number of new possibilities now in play (including the "bigger hole" scenario) I'm happy to take that back off the table. While I'm happy to speculate at the margins ultimately I'm an investor and right now I don't have the information I would need to make an investment decision on this company. Too many possibilities. I suspect that's the point AustralianSuper may have reached.

Absolutely not advice, just my personal decision. I freely admit I'm entirely unsure which direction things are likely to go from here.

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2022 annual results- international trading was highly profitable and growing at a good clip. That was 8 months ago.

CCX Price at posting: 64.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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McGrath Nichols summonsed...., page-19

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McGrath Nichols summonsed...., page-19

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