Their bidder's statement and approach seems similar to when they made an offer for The Reject Shop (TRS), suggesting that management doesn't know what they are doing and the business is in terminal decline. They haven't said what they would do differently, except that they will be angling for board representation even if they secure less than 50%. If they gained total control (>90% + compulsory acquisition) they could probably move a few of the tables around and pick up some synergies in production/distribution, but with less than 50% it seems a less than natural fit to their existing portfolio.
Their current offer remains open for another 11 days -- if trades and volumes move the way they did today they might just sit on their hands for a while, wait for nervous investors to take the money and run. If smaller retail trades get in ahead (as was the case much of Friday) they I suspect they'll sweeten the deal. I would suppose a bid in the mid-40's would make sense, I wouldn't expect them to announce anything in the 50's.
As a shareholder, with their existing capital structure and headwinds, MCP seems fairly priced at around $220m ($1.71). ...But personally, if I was in Germinder's shoes and had $160+m to spend, MCP would not be my first pick.
MCP Price at posting:
$1.43 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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