@Varuka I'm less concerned about the lack of updates to the market, and rather more concerned about mgmt inability to monetise the IP and market share that they have (well that is partly related to spruiking metrics like a 65% pharmacy market share in Australia which still does not generate a profit).
The big concern I have is that mgmt have bought another loss making business which is highly dependent on winning contract each year to stay cashflow positive.
1H21......Operating cashflow -2.2m which did not seem bad, but accounting loss of 9.5m and significant increase in debtors, creditors and other liabilities
3Q21.....operating cashflow of -8.4m because I suspect they had to pay off some of these creditors in the Adheris purchase....also why I think they had to raise cash as the outflow was not sustainable.
At a minimum, Adheris needs to be generating ~AUD 37.5m (US30m) & the Aus operations needs to generate AUD20m to keep MDR cashflow positive so they need AUD57-60m minimum (Adheris has expenses of ~US30m per the 19Nov20 document, while Aus operations costs ~20m pa per FY2020 financials).
On what they have provided - 1Q21 revenues of 12.5m - 2Q21 revenues of 13.0m guidance (based on YTD Mar21 act 25.5m and FY21 guidance of 38.5m at midpoint) - 1H22 revenues of ~30m guidance (based on above and CY21 guidance of 56m at midpoint)
So 4Q21 and FY21 is a big train-wreck, but if 1H22 forecast plays out, then they have a small chance of making it.......but it's the legacy business that is the huge loss making operation that they have never addressed and don't seem to be keen to highlight.....that's what shareholders should make mgmt focus on.
MDR Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)