Comparisons have been made between Prima and Dendreon as they...

Comparisons have been made between Prima and Dendreon as they are both using similar science technology to treat cancer(s).

I thought it would be interesting to review Dendreon's journey over the years to where it is today and use this as a possible template to project where Prima may be in 2/3 years.

Dendreon

Dec 2005 - public offering 11.5 million shares @ $4.50
June 2006 - pivotal phase 3 study results
Nov 2006 - submits complete FDA application
Nov 2006- institutional offering raises $45m ($4.50/share)
Mar 2007 - FDA committee reviews Provenge application (share price hits $20)
May 2007 - FDA requests additional clinical data (share price drops to circa $7.00)
June 2007- further capital raising (convertible $8.75 notes) $75m.(to fund additional trials)
Oct 2007 - $130m committed equity financing facility (manufacturing Provenge)
- target enrollment completed - 500 patients
Mar 2008 - FDA agrees to amend special protocol assessment for Phase 3 impact study.
April 2009 - Dendreon announces 'Provenge significantly prolongs survival in men with advanced prostrate cancer'. Share price rises to $22.00
May 2009 - common stock offering, 11 million shares @ $19.50 (manufacturing facilities).
April 2010 - FDA approval. Shares peak $50 !

Dendreon effectively 'lost' 2 years due to FDA requesting more clinical data. I am sure Prima/FDA will ensure that pre quantified/ qualified measuring endpoints are not ambiguous, thus on the premise that phase 3 trials are successful, should considerably speed up Cvacs time to market, compared to Provenge.

Prima is now at the serious pointy end - pivotal phase 3 trials (and phase 2b - 60 patients). 800 patients to be enrolled. Interim data Q4 - 2012/Q1 - 2013. Final data Q4 - 2013/Q1 2014.

Simple valuation comparison Prima v Dendreon.

Same development stage - Phase 3 recruitment/fully funded.

Dendreon - Initial public offering -$4.50 (fully funded for first p3 trials) . Todays share price $45.00. 10x growth.

Prima - commencement of p3 enrollment - share price $0.30.

Assuming min 10x valuation (FDA approval assumed) - $3.00.
Factor in additional cancer vaccines/products and 'significantly' lower capex (compared to Dendreon at same stage), then the upside to this simple valuation is significant.

Obviously only my humble opinion. Apologies if I bored you to sleep (that is if you managed to get this far).

PS. TOU'd you guys last night for 'blatant reminiscing'. Well done mod's for allowing such nonsense!