ARU 0.00% 19.0¢ arafura rare earths ltd

Important thing now is they are like seagulls fighting over...

  1. 6,257 Posts.
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    Important thing now is they are like seagulls fighting over scraps - chips at the beach in my view.

    I'm sure we all know when the big end (remember we are just a sideshow) want the SP to move north they'll pip it up at the close as often as possible and vice versa for a lower SP in which we have seen here almost daily - and always pips below the daily VWAP.

    How can this play out with ARU in this case? whom are positioned extremely well except financial closure slated for June or mid year in quarterly paragraph (no guarantees). As I have stated previously the current sp descent has been telegraphed by the company for both compliance and all to see clearly the situation - ECE must divest 110 million shares thereabouts. That telegraph sees the insto's accumulate on opportunity - and send the SP down for their collective benefits along the way all the time accumulating bags full at a nice average indeed. They can do it with ease in knowledge the chance of a significant announcement is minimal - the whole ECE exit is both a requirement and pre cursor to the pending significant announces. Whom else is accumulating on this gifted opportunity if not the insto's? The shorters have indeed since added since March bad bank run occurred but certainly increased since on the ECE exit yet still minimal @ circa 60 million thereabouts - whom again are the shorter's - insto's of course.

    Anyway enough on this - it is all but over - well the ECE exit anyway. There could be more issues - selling pressure if finance not delivered on time which I rate a 50-50 chance however zero concerns if later in next quarter - only because the one financier in German Gov is relatively new and if any German posters here - possibly would agree they take some time to progress things although the Siemens binding offtake was quick - yet I do not believe significant enough (400t at this point) to see the full 600us million through - I could be wrong.
    Think we should be focused on the June financial closure and conversations on who's in so we know - well almost:

    2x OZ gov entities 250 million aud.
    German gov up to 800 million aud.
    GE?
    Hyundai?
    Hancock?
    US Gov has now included friendly's available for grants from DOE and Green billions.
    Super Fund similar to the substantial AusSuper backing of Syrah Resources graphite developments?
    Westfarmers? They wanted Lynas bad but missed - would they be interested in a stake here?
    Banks?
    CR to retail?

    So there are many we consider highly and a few out of interest to consider. The US Gov would be extremely beneficial however it would take quiet some time - to long most likely yet as with German Gov time is of essence to secure future supply. Just my rambles - trying to keep the spirit up here for last 11 weeks. Never any guarantees as we know.


 
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