Media Reports, page-2416

Sorry not sure who originally posted this but found it compelling to share again, originally posted here around start of October.

https://insideevs.com/news/654889/ev-battery-manufacturing-capacity-north-america-2030/The data is 6 months old but still relevant. This is what SYR is chasing with Balama selling concentrate to other AAM producers and Vidalia selling AAM.The below numbers are from what has been announced, hence the small increase from 2025 to 2030. Any new announcements won't change the 2025 figure of 800 GWh/year and obviously there will be delays in what has been announced. The rapid increase starts in 2024 with a very large increase from 2024 to 2025 when the battery material subsidies begin. Then there is Europe.But things are now different, as ANL notes 90 GWh/year in 2022, and expects 177 GWh/year this year. Considering the announced battery plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico (through November 2022), the volume is expected to increase to 346 GWh/year in 2024, and exceed 800 GWh/year in 2025, reaching nearly 998 GWh/year by 2030. The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Vehicle Technologies Office reports that within roughly ten years (between 2021 and 2030), the total battery manufacturing capacity will increase nearly 20 times.Obviously Vidalia will only be producing 11.25kt of AAM in 2025 but Balama can be the dominate fines producer like the Chinese are for their own markets from 2026 depending how fast others can build their natural AAM plants. The west can't possibly build enough natural or synthetic AAM plants to meet total demand until 2040 at the earliest. I don't believe they can build enough to meet the IRA demand. I'm assuming the US plants will use a 50/50 natural synthetic mix. Possibly a 50/40/10 natural synthetic silicon mix sometime between 2025-2030.As a comparison, the top 10 battery producers supplied 284GWh in the first 6 months of this year. Doesn't include BESS which is still small but growing rapidly. The numbers are sobering.

compare these numbers to what we actually need to achieve to be on target for net zero (see next post)