Media Reports, page-943

Due to SYR's flake size ratios, SYR is only interested in LIB's. So it didn't open up a 350kt mine in a 750kt market. It was around 200kt.

All companies twist facts and figures to muddy the waters and make motherhood statements if their message isn't great. However, I'm gaining some serious respect for BKT's management. At least they provide the figures where you can scratch below the surface and find out and are open and honest enough to include it in their risks.

From BKT's chart @Normandy7 posted above. Below are natural flake concentrate totals mined for the LIB industry (-100 mesh fines)
2023(f) - 1mt, 2022 - 700kt, 2021 - 425kt, 2020 - 257kt, 2019 - 196kt

I'm hoping the forecast for 2023 is a little higher. From the above totals, I'd say the -100 mesh size flake required for other industrial purposes (not included in the above numbers) like brake linings etc is south of 100ktpa. Demand has finally outstriped Chinese mine production in 2022.

BKT have forecast only 1 mine to come online in the next 12 months or so. The vast majority of mines forecast to come online in the next 5 yrs produce predominantly large size flake. TLG and a few smaller mines are the exception that I know about. TLG have said they'll be producing 20kt AAM (~35kt concentrate mined) by 2030 which is stuff all. They won't start scaling up until early/mid 2030's which is a shame. The industry requires their output asap.

As I keep saying, graphite producers aren't in competition. They complement each other in a race to mine enough "battery grade concentrate" to meet demand. Most retail and industry investors can't seem to grasp the amount of demand coming down the pike. Supply isn't going to meet demand in the next 10 yrs, so every battery grade flake they mine will be required and then some. The shortfall will be met by synthetic and maybe SYR expanding Balama.

What other expansions LG are during really doesn't matter Normandy. The US won't produce enough AAM to meet demand for those vehicles which qualify for the subsides as it is. The qualification for minerals processed in the US don't start until 2025.