@rae915 Crossing my fingers that all three parts of your post won't come true. The morbidity aside, a takeover attempt tomorrow would severely undervalue what we all know is cooking here. If a takeover at this level now was successful, I doubt it would be for a large premium (even a 200% premium would only just take us over $1.00), and sure we long term holders would get some share price relief after hovering at the average 40c for so long, but I would think it wouldn't be anywhere near what we could get for 2 more years of progression. Speaking for myself, I'd hope to see more than $1/share for a takeover after all this time, not right now but eventually.
PA has put hard figures on his expectations for where this is heading. 20% market share for the best-in-class products, $55m and $255m per year for our first two products if we get there. I don't think he would say those specific figures if there wasn't market indications that we would get there. BioHorizons more than doubled their units ordered between first and second years, and we're still expanding into further geographical regions on top of that. A recent conference I attended discussed how VC firms and Big Pharma companies are sitting on their funds because right now time is their friend and whilst inflation and the economy is so volatile, they're readjusting their investment theses to find opportunities that are low risk, high reward. They want to know the cost of goods is low whilst the return is high. They're specifically looking for
high margin opportunities, exactly what PA flagged us as having in our nerve repair products.
With managements wording, approval of Remplir into the US seems pretty concrete (of course they have to sound confident as it's their job, but there really seems to be minimal issues there). Personally I see the main risk to M&A partners right now as things stand, to be the scale-up of manufacturing to meet the demand of these 20% market capture goals. Our current facility in WA can handle 100,000 units per year. If BioHorizons doubles their ordered units again, over half of that yearly manufacturing capability is already accounted for from Striate alone. If management is going to potential US/Global distributors for Remplir and further pipeline developments, and telling them that 20% figure is what they believe to be attainable, they need to show that they have plans in place to manufacture and supply the product at that scale. Otherwise it's all talk.
If we could be breakeven in 2025/26 with no further expansion of our supply chain then great. If we can show on the balance sheet that we
would be breakeven but we're re-investing that cash into manufacturing expansion project, before it becomes an issue, excellent. Future risk would be mitigated and we look all the more appealing as a takeover target. I don't think it will take until breakeven in 2027 to reflect growth in the share price in that case.
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