I can see the silence both ways, and don't know which way it will go but a guess at a downside case which is just my opinion and not advice, is:
- no further cf33 data updates despite the ceo saying, last year at some point, there would data cuts/rollingish updates, and there having been major conferences pass by.
- hinting at altering protocol to test immune system to improve responses for cf33. This is not a fact as per certain "professors", but a guess, and would be a divergence from what fong himself has said about cf33 replication and infection in cancer cells. I note the John Hester (prob the only decent biotech analyst in Aus) in the bellpotter update stated under the heading of what [BP] buyers want "If the virus is able to replicate within the cancer cells, we would also expect to seean abscopal effect in nearby cancers and this would be an exceptional result –particularly in patients dosed via IV." - that is the whole point of cf33; its a virus that attacks cancer cells. If this point is now mitigated by immune system status that is a significant change for mine, and would likely take more time to explore efficacy in the trial.
- Extending runway with an out of the blue sale of factory a few months after we were all told its purchase was strategy genius. The key bit being a need to extend the cash runway for some reason.
- Nick ede referring to 18 months, moving out his previous 12 months by another 12 monthsish.
- No investor presso updates since JPM (despite many in previous years), and no sign of yuman fong or investor roadshows for ages (after rolling him out multiple times prior to CRs and AGMs last couple year). Deafening silence.
- CEO recently mentioning 9 months.
- CEO more than once mentioning US investors are interested in OnCarlytics OASIS trial, but never saying the same about vaxinia MAST trial.
The upside case I guess is cf33 data is being held back to get to the right point, or some kind of deal being worked on. Personally I this this is less likely due to other factors mentioned.
That downside case possibly pushes everything out by a long way, again. But who knows, and I would be happy to see immediate positive catalysts.
We wont know until the company actually tells us something, including releasing data, but for some reason it is taking a while. Until then we can only read the tea leaves.
Always do your own research.
GLTA.
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