Hi there
@fourdollarsA big hi also to all other IMU investors and especially to the various friends I have here on HC.
Dear friend four bucks - I do appreciate the reasoned discussion and the calm and friendly debate. My apologies in advance - I am not posting as often or as extensively as I might. I have other things taking my attention right now so my responses are a bit abbreviated and I'm unlikely to post much more until we get serious news.
However - just a quick note in reply to your recent comment that "
@davybabyk and
@Owl vs Fox and others believe that they will be proceeding with Phase 3 HER-Vaxx and that the only thing holding this up is the final O/S results from HER-Vaxx Phase 2. In this camp, the likelihood of Phase 3 has only gotten stronger over the past year since "the longer the trial goes, the better."
I can't speak for my good friend, the excellent
@Owl vs Fox who needs no-one to speak for her in any case. However with respect to myself I can say that you have perhaps misunderstood my position. My thoughts on the matter are more nuanced than the position you attribute to me. I am not saying that IMU "
will be proceeding with Phase 3 Her-vaxx" but I do think that
if they proceed with a Phase 3, then yes,
they can only do so when they "the final O/S results from Her-vaxx Phase 2."
My feeling is that if the final O/S data is excellent then Her-vaxx is likely to go to a Phase 3, but IMU is unlikely to be the company doing that. If the final O/S data is truly excellent then it is far more likely that a licensing deal would be done with big Pharma based on the Phase 2 data. Phase 3 studies are very long and expensive and, in any case, IMU does not have the marketing and distribution network to actually take a drug to market in the event of FDA approval.
Meanwhile, two things are happening related to Her-vaxx. 1. OS "events" (deaths) are taking longer than expected - which is great for the patients and implies good news for the final OS data. 2. Immunotherapy - and oncology generally - is moving strongly towards combination therapies. IMU has always been interested in Combination Therapy for that matter - LC, PH and Axel Hoos (before he left) have spoken extensively about combinations being the way of the future. There are many possible combinations with existing commercially successful drugs, and some of those are now being explored clinically. (Also, of course, as the company has expanded it's portfolio it has developed options for combo therapy between IMU owned drugs).
So rather than just sit on their hands and wait for final O/S data on Her-vaxx, it makes a lot of sense for IMU to pursue combo therapy trials for Her-vaxx in advance of final OS data from the original Phase 2. The aim here is to get Her-vaxx to market as quickly as possible, with a good return for the company and shareholders.
Will that happen? Of course none of us can be certain. It comes down to an assessment of the balance of probabilities - and the SP is a function of the market's assessment of that probability, combined with the market's assessment of the likely value of a deal if it were to happen, plus similar calculations for the rest of the IMU portfolio of drugs and IP. (And yes - the SP may also be modified by any market games which may be being played depending on your taste for conspiracy theories).
My personal view is that the market has always been over estimating the risk of failure (for Her-vaxx initially, and then for the other drugs as the portfolio expanded) and/or under-estimating the potential value of deals in the event of clinical and commercial success. I have invested accordingly.
I entirely respect the fact that you perhaps assess the risk of failure as greater than I do, and will likewise invest accordingly.
For now, I'm sitting back to await more definite news.
Best wishes to you and to all
Dave
