until this company gets FDA approval which still way off, this company is way over-valued @Bouncing
That's in your opinion. But speaking with many leading shareholders, who ultimately determine the value of a share when a licensing deal, takeover or partnership agreement requires a vote, not one I have liaised with would sell the CF33/Vaxinia/Oncarlytics platform for less than $1 AUD minimum per share. So I guess that places the share at 10 times its current value, on the low side. In fact I would hardly doubt a $1 figure for these platform(s) would see the light of day. So I guess it's all conjecture on the part of investors. But either way, as an example, if someone isn't prepared to sell their house today for under $1m reserve at auction, I'd assume that's the value, whether it reaches that price or not is another matter.
I just do not see how people can see rare disease companies, ADC's and early stage immunotherapy companies on the Nasdaq selling for up to 10, 20 and at times up to 100 times Imugene's current valuation, and not take into consideration Imugene's trial results thus far, in addition to their existing stand alone and combination trials, at what is close to if not their optimal biological dose rates. Success in the solid tumour market, the company's primary target market, is untapped gold, the holy grail as it were. It's not the stuff rare diseases stem from. The FDA has allowed the Vaxinia Trial to commence at higher dose rates than CF33, whilst at the same time facilitating a combination trial with Pembroluzimab, in up to 100 patients no less. To me they are well and truly on side with what Professor Fong of the City of Hope is doing here. Hence from where I sit there is already a measurable and hefty intrinsic valuation associated with Imugene's intellectual property, based on existing pre and post clinical trial studies and results alone.
Just as an aside analysts base biotech stock valuations on estimated earnings per product, year on year, taking into consideration competition, inflation, the cost of production and other variables. in many instances they may be paid for their valuation, yet their credibility, professional indemnity insurance and reputation is on the line when delivering these said valuations. The average price target for health care analysts assessing Imugene (IMU-ASX) is currently 51 cents per share AUD. I'm not sure what your forecast modelling and inherent valuation is based on, however if it is based purely on Imugene not obtaining an FDA Approval for any of their products, then with all due respect I believe you are somewhat misguided. With 15 or more FDA product approvals for immunotherapy drugs under their personnel's collective belts, for drugs that are in the main less safe than Imugene's current suite of therapies, I'd be confident close to all Imugene's immunotherapies shall obtain FDA Approvals in due course. With some being firmly in the running for FDA fast track approval within the FDA's significant breakthrough therapy parameters. In other words sooner rather than later.
As for their intellectual property now, clearly individuals such as you see it as overvalued, which tbh is of significant benefit to those in a position to acquire IMU at reasonable prices, based on estimated forecasted future earnings. Obviously ones risk profile, available capital, diversification and a number of other factors would need to be taken into account, however if one has an appetite for risk, based on the existing trials as they stand, I would be confident IMU leans strongly toward the undervalued category, as opposed to being overvalued. As always I suppose it comes back to your investment time frame.
But hey, thats my opinion, and as outlined, you are definitely entitled to yours.
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only
Every investor who wants to beat the market must master the skill of stock valuation. Essentially, stock valuation is a method of determining the intrinsic value (or theoretical value) of a stock. The importance of valuing stocks evolves from the fact that the intrinsic value of a stock may be different from its current price. By knowing a stock’s intrinsic value, an investor may determine whether the stock is over- or undervalued at its current market price.
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