Morning folks. Following a webinar yesterday, I went hunting for...

Morning folks.

Following a webinar yesterday, I went hunting for the report that provided some of that data points used in the session and previously referred to be @Steini.That report, produced annually by EY for the last 33 years, turned out to be an interesting read.

Located here for those interested: Beyond Borders: EY Biotechnology Report 2023 | EY - US

At 60 pages long, it is an in-depth analysis of the biotech market.

Below, I have summarized some of the key themes and points of interest (for me at least), as it goes a long way to explaining some of the current and longer term challenges all bios, including Imugene, will face. Again, for me, this data helps explain some of what we're seeing broadly and helps explains the roll off in the share price.

Key themes:

Biotech leaders (firms with over US$500m in revenue) and Big Pharma need to address an “innovation deficit” and must find new revenue given the wave of looming patent expirations, that will dramatically impact their existing product revenues.

Emerging biotechs face a tight capital environment- and many are woefully under-capitalized in the short term.Those that do have attractive late-stage assets will command lucrative multiples for partnering or acquisitions.

Note: Good science leading to differentiated products will always be the key to success in this R&D-driven industry.

The ongoing uncertainties in the geopolitical and global macroeconomic environment remain a headwind and the changing US regulatory environment will also be a factor. Additionally, the US Inflation Reduction Act increased uncertainty in the sector, making it more difficult for acquirers to evaluate potential targets;

Conclusion: Even more important now for biotechs to focus on their fundamentals: preserving cash and producing strong data

Points of interest for me:

• 2021 covid boom saw large increase in revenue
• growth in the industry normalized into 2022

Innovation deficit

• Significant LOE (loss-of-exclusivity) event in early 2023 (AbbVie’s Humira – one of the best selling drugs of all time)
• 4 other mAbs, which command over $14B in revenue in 2022, facing LOE by the end of 2023
• Another 17 year LOE events over the next 5 years
• Biosimilar sales soaring in the US market – loss of sales for Avastin and Herceptin
• Sharp fall in FDA approvals into 2022
• Estimated to be over 20,000 active drug candidates worldwide

Capital Environment

• 2020 and 2021 highly productive for capital raising – almost $240B raised
• 2022 saw a decline of 54% in available capital for bios
• $54B in 2022 lowest since 2016
• Reduced levels of debt financing (down 10%) in response to interest rate rises
• 63% drop in follow-on pub offering capital raises
• disappearance of the IPO market which fell by 93% in 2022

Emerging Biotechs

• 55%have insufficient cash to last 2 years
• 29% have insufficient cash to last a year – this is an increase of 18% over the previous year
• Venture funding fell 29%
• the total number of deals fell in 2022, with investment value heavily dependent on a few large-scale deals,
• In all, around 56% of the deals in 2022 saw larger pharma companies acquiring biotechs
• 30 bios filed for bankruptcy since 2020.

GLTAH

edit: formatting butchered by HC again. sorry!