SHP 0.00% 2.4¢ south harz potash ltd

I find the situation of the fertiliser markets unique compared...

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    I find the situation of the fertiliser markets unique compared to 2008. During 2008, the commodities boom in terms of fertiliser was more speculative in nature compared to the much more real factors underpinning the current fertiliser bull market.

    However, a key disparity between now and 2008 is that in 2008, and speculative miners with prospective potash projects soared into the 1000s of per cents sending micro cap companies into small to mid cap companies within the months. This does not appear to be the case in 2021 though, many companies with potash projects in the pipelines are not experiencing the euphoric gains witnessed in 2008 despite the factors driving the price rises being much more real and instrinsic this time around. The performance has materialised in the more establish companies in the likes of Mosaic, Nutrien and IPL which have seen their share prices outperform the market substantially over the course of last year.

    Lithium on the other hand has gone nuts with most prospective lithium development companies appreciating significantly. This difference may be due to the fact the lithium shortage is likely to be prolonged throughout the coming decade whereas the high potash prices are unlikely to extend in the longer-term. However, this still doesn't explain why the market is not favouring prospective potash producers in the current climate.

    From my analysis, the overcast days for potash stocks should cease sooner or later. However, the current distaste for potash among Australian investors probably can be stemmed to the monumental failure at SO4's Lake Way Project. This project has cost taxpayers significantly with huge investor losses totalling in the hundreds of millions. But worst aspect of this failure is the fact that management blatantly lied to financers, sophisticated investors and retailed holders on multiple occassions before finally ending in administration. I can understand why Chris at SHP wants to seek a dual listing on the Euro Markets.


    Last edited by Freeman02: 08/11/21
 
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