The heavy share price fall can be rightly explained simply by a very low REO prices and structurally challenged RE market, in conjunction with heavy profit taking during the Lassonde FS period of little news but lots of uncertainly. Over the period of falling share price post MRE, LIN has failed to monetise the bauxite assets, which will also be a disappointment to the market as a source of non-dilutive funding. A falling share price 'cum-raise' development funding is a self-fulfilling prophecy and the major reason early investors bolt for the exits when the exploration sizzle is over and minds turn to funding requirements. As Euroz concludes in halving their valuation ( post sell off of course)... "have revised our equity assumptions to reflect all modelled dilution" ...
The Lassonde orphan period is not just about fear of development funding gaps and CR dilution, it's also a period where early optimistic assumptions are tempered by more realistic costings in the lead up to a development decision. The number of people involved with a feasibility study is enormous... many different consultants, all talking to the company and each other, peer review of iterative results as they happen then get tweaked and changed over time etc. Critical outcomes and metrics of FS's are passed around like a 7 paper trumpet at a hippy commune campfire... by the time it makes it to the market, retail is sucking on a tiny roach using tweezers to avoid burning their lips.
I'm very pessimistic that LIN's early guidance of US$20M capex for Stage 1 is anywhere near the mark. I'm nowhere near connected to the grapevine, though I suspect Euroz is. Below is a table of the critical variables that have or will be firmed up over the 9-12 months to FS release from high expectations 12 months ago. So far results have been mildly below early expectations, such as lower grade MRE, and recoveries not rising to 80% from early 70% work. I look forward to filling out the table with FS assumptions later this month... with some trepidation
GLTA
(20min delay)