Hard to say as I am wary of the data and information coming out...

Hard to say as I am wary of the data and information coming out of China ... but at this very moment, my concern is not China when it comes to FLC.

At this very moment, I am looking at my entire portfolio and asking myself one question. How healthy is their Balance Sheet?

FLC did a recent cap raise which was prudent and it was done at a heavy discount for this particular scenario ... It was frowned upon back then, but in hindsight, FLC management did the right thing to raise capital when they did.

However, at 31 Dec 19 FLC only have US$22m ... and the cash burn is between US$6m-US$10m a quarter.

Given the current situation, it wouldn't surprise me that debtors are delaying payment... projects being pushed back (will remain in backlog, but may be lost if client pulls the pin or goes belly up)... which is why I am also using the upper range of US$10m... this means by the end of March 2020, FLC will only have US$12-16m. Which is around where mangaement needed to raise capital last time.... but we are in vastly different circumstances now... capital is extremely difficult to come by right now and even harder as the months go on.

Which brings me to the Ivory Coast ... we are expecting US$20m, presumably after they give notice to proceed.. which was anticipated in April 2020. I am very worried that this may be pushed back indefinitely as the Discount Bank may not want to commit to such a large project in these market conditions... even with the backing of the Israeli Govt... OR they may still go ahead because of that backing...

If ASHRA wasn't involved, I would say that 100% the Ivory Coast project will be delayed... but because there is ASHRA backing, I'll say we have a 50/50 chance that it may still go ahead..

However the consequence of it not going ahead, may mean that the US$20m FLC were expecting may not be received next quarter... which means they will need additional capital.

The new facility is almost out of the question right now in my view... and the SQ project... well I am not expecting that to kick off until the dust settles globally... with governments locking down industries and pushing for social distancing.. the last thing I expect to see is that new projects will get started which could lead to large gatherings of people and result in a shutdown of the project if one staff member gets sick. That is the new reality we live in...

I'm here to voice my views and concerns ... but I welcome opposing views .. in fact I encourage it.. it might make me feel better about the near term for FLC.... I know R.Lauder is a billionare.. but I don't really want to see him come to the rescue and dilute us retail holders... because any capital raised will be at a sharp discount to today's prices. IMO.