While I largely agree with your first 3 paragraphs, the only issue I have with the conspiracy theories is that management would have purposely had to suppress business opportunities in order for this to be the plan. There have been a number of delays/issues that were outside of management's hands:
1. 12 month delay in Mexican San Quintin contract due to political party challenge on PPP laws. If revenue began in 2017, likely would have reached approx $82 million revenue (of $90m guidance) vs $68m . Would have also added +$20m USD in 2018 revenues. Plus $10m operation & maintenance revenue in 2020. ($105m guidance + $20m).
2. Being lowest/best bidder on SA desalination fast-build contract (whoever can supply 50ML fastest), but SA gov ran out of money and could not award. Management expected to win this one, and we built up stock of Niroboxes in order to fulfill. (+$30m to revenue 2018). Plus after 3 years of drought rain actually did come. If another drought year money would have been found.
3. Delay of export credit financing approval for West African +$100m contract. If won in Q2/Q3 Additional revenue in 2018/19/20.
4. Slower than expected uptake in China of MABR.
#4 was to be expected, the water industry is slow to adopt. #3 was always a bonus and not an expectation. #2 has had a 2 bad effects, it was taken into account in 2018 forecasts (now missed revenue) and blew up expenses. If we had not built up stock we would have about $12m USD more cash at this stage also. #1 led to a big miss in 2017 revenue. If Fluence made $82 million in revenue in 2017, plus was guiding $150m for 2018, I do not think the share price could have fallen so low for Australian shareholder sentiment to be so low.
I am not defending management or their future intentions, I am simply stating that if some business opportunities had followed the initial planned timelines (outside of control of management) then it would have had a drastic effect on revenue and current financial position and we would likely be in a difference place SP wise. Seems like a stretch to assume that management have themselves sabotaged these deals in order to get cheaper shares or list in the US more cheaply?
(20min delay)
