Management used SPS sales in 2018 of $22M USD and said that they were going aim to grow it 100% to $44M USD.
It is not a promise, it is a soft target based on having some Aspiral MABR momentum in China with the iTEST min $45M 3Y contract, plus pilot plants with multiple partners (Zhejiang Tiandi, Hunan Kaitian, Jinzi, Zhongzi Huaze).
Worldwide there had been some pilot orders in the Philippines, Argentina, USA, Ethopia and Israel, with expected further growth.
The launch of SUBRE was meant to occur about now, but was pushed earlier due to the Jamaican orders. The expectation was to see some momentum out of this in Q3 and Q4.
Nirobox is incredibly unpredictable. Plants can be from 1 to 10 Niroboxes, and orders have come in differing formats. While management would have some discussions in their pipeline, it is a very competitive space, so forecasting 10-12 months in advance would be difficult.
Outside of SPS, while announcements may have been sparse this year, work on multiple projects from last year is still being completed, with revenue coming in from those projects. What has been announced this year though has been relatively significant, with a $184M USD Ivory Coast deal due to close in the next 2 months, a $20M USD Egyptian equipment deal, and a $10M USD Brazilian desal plant.
Waste-to-energy should also have some announcements in the 2nd half of the year out of Argentina.
The project finance space may also lead to some significant wins.
The confirmed financial close of the Ivory Coast deal should be a significant event to look forward to in the next 2 months, with construction to soon follow.
There is no real problem with the potential of the company, nor the pipeline, it is the attitude in general of traders and instos towards the water space. It seems too long-lead in terms of time-frames to most, there is a preference towards stocks that have a stable revenue base on top of profitability. Fluence are still in an unpredictable growth phase pre-profitability, where visibility for the general market into potential new revenue sources is limited. Cash position is also a concern to some.
I have done my research and I am not worried about the future business opportunities for Fluence, it is just when certain milestones are hit in relation to market forces that will make the difference. Delays will not be viewed kindly, nor will bulk orders necessarily be rewarded until sustainable profitability and financial viability is assured.
Compare to PET, which are at a market cap of around $480M.
2018 revenues of $18.7m AUD ($3.5m NPBT). 50% gross profit margin.
2019 forecast of $27-30m AUD ($6-8m NPBT).
Approx $12m in cash.
I believe PET will also be a successful company in the water space, however is the current market cap too high based on what they have achieved so far?
They have some momentum in China which is driving some excitement.
The market cap being higher coupled with being profitable and having a strong financial position may have led to some institutional buying ahead of a September ASX300 entry.
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Management used SPS sales in 2018 of $22M USD and said that they...
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Last
5.7¢ |
Change
-0.001(1.72%) |
Mkt cap ! $61.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.8¢ | 5.8¢ | 5.4¢ | $1.436K | 25.75K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5488 | 5.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.7¢ | 16699 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5488 | 0.054 |
1 | 10000 | 0.052 |
2 | 110000 | 0.051 |
2 | 59100 | 0.050 |
1 | 12500 | 0.048 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.057 | 16699 | 1 |
0.058 | 112133 | 2 |
0.059 | 75000 | 1 |
0.060 | 102723 | 2 |
0.061 | 514816 | 2 |
Last trade - 15.59pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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