Im a firm believer in gut instincts - and whenever I see Jayne in the media I get an absolute gut feeling of confidence. She is smart, charismatic, energetic, disruptive, successful, well connected, and a (well cultured) mum. She fits our brand PERFECTLY.
The next three years will be her true test - sustaining growth off of such a large base will be a massive challenge, but not impossible. In my mind there are two "what ifs" - i.e. what is she does and what if she doesn't:
In the "What is she doesn't pull it off" scenario - If growth trajectory slows to an easily achievable 20-30% YoY over the next three years, we would be looking at a share price of roughly a bit north of where we are now.
In the "What if she does pull it off scenario" - If growth between 30-50% occurs for three years we are looking at two or three multiples of where we are now and a seat at the ASX20 table - with official 'Blue Chip' status.
So, in my above two eventualities it would appear the risk vs reward is well biased to the upside SP wise, and I tend to think that the "What if she does" scenario is more likely to play out.
Jayne, Im counting on you to earn my full retirement by the ripe old age of 37! And considering Jaynes age - I imagine while at the helm of a2 she is looking to gain the status of top female CEO in Australia, and retire with a a cool couple of hundred mil in the bank. Go get em Jayne!
Disc: All IMO, on very rough input figures, on the back of an envelope - that I found blowing in the wind.
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