We haven't had any update from management that synlait will miss the planned forecast to meet A2M forecast of $525M. So monitoring woolies shelves and online isn't very accurate compared to a very recent company forecast /upgrade.
I suspect the big deliveries will be back loaded in June and they will go directly to the big importers who pay up front, to ensure sales are booked in for this FY.
I also suspect they continue to funnel their limited stock through the highest margin channels which will not be australian retailers. There are more direct channels in China with higher margins. I recall GS or UBS did a nice analysis of margins in the various channels around 6 to 12 months ago in one of their reports.
A2M Price at posting:
$3.27 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)