A2M 0.61% $6.52 the a2 milk company limited

How is reducing lockdowns and borders opening up going to help...

  1. 5,798 Posts.
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    How is reducing lockdowns and borders opening up going to help A2M? Chinese mothers are still feeding their babies formula during border closures and lockdowns. Are they magically going to start buying from daigou again? You don't just change the formula that a baby is having on a whim. A lot has changed over the last 18 months. Chinese have become more willing to purchase local product due to nationalism. International brands have all pointed to the challenging environment with local brands taking big chunks of market share.

    My opinion is that a lot of mothers who relied on daigou have either moved to another channel to buy A2M or changed to another brand. In both instances, why would they revert back to the dagiou channel? I said this last year, but the length of border closures has caused irreversible damage to the daigou channel. That channel was previously serving a need (distrust of local product), but that need has diminished significantly.

    In regards to your comment about growth, if the company does return to growth in the future, it will be at a significantly lower rate than in the past and on diminished margins given that the daigou channel, which was its cash cow in terms of free marketing and large margins, is damaged beyond repair. I think growth going forward is going to be hard to come by and anaemic at best. The company is going to have to spend a lot on marketing to grow, which is going to eat into its profitably. The company has been preparing investors for this new normal in many of its statements regarding investing in the brand. Just maintaining market share in China is going to be tough, let alone increasing it. If USA and UK is any indication, growth in new markets is going to be a hard slog with limited prospects of profitability.
 
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