Media Updates, page-12463

Agreed, people should listen/read the transcript. However I think we are talking about two different things. On the SAMR registration timeline, which is what the poster above was referring too, it seemed very clear to me. Audit complete in Q3, approval in Q4, new product to market Q2 next year. There were no further questions on that from the fundies on the call, but apparently randoms on here conveniently have more inside info on that front.

Like you say there was less clarity about the change in forecast from A2. I read it as a combination of not being able to reveal anything price-sensitive either way about their biggest customer and at the same time, virtually every question trying to get at exactly this from different angles. Of course they also have to deflect some blame away from themselves.

The reality is that it is a 12-month rolling forecast they give Synlait, which is updated every month - so surely what matters most (for A2M) is probably the accuracy of the first half of that forecast, since that is what provides Synlait the necessary lead time for production. For instance, when SAMR approval is granted, A2M can update its forecast accordingly. That is the problem here, which is that the mismatch between SM1 and A2M's modelling assumptions require different inputs and time horizons, so one is not necessarily a good indicator of the other over a longer term (in my view).

Caveat, I didn't listen but went off the transcript above (which is an automatically transcribed one so lots of transcription errors).