1H23 revenue was $783.3M and 2H23 revenue was $809.6M (total...

1H23 revenue was $783.3M and 2H23 revenue was $809.6M (total FY23 revenue was $1,592.9M).

The outlook given in August 23 was low single digit revenue growth for FY24. There is normally also a skew towards the second half being higher than first half.

If we apply low single digit growth of ~3% to the 1H23 revenue figure this gives around $806.8M for 1H24. 2H24 would need to be ~ $834M and total FY24 would be ~$1,640M. To me, hitting these revenues and maintaining similar EBITDA margins (at around 13 to 14 percent) would be "meeting' their guidance.

The SP is up 20% in 2 weeks and I think the market is expecting either a) 1H24 financials stronger than anticipated; or b) a significant upgrade to the overall outlook for A2M, or c) both of these.

Birth and marriage rates in China have are trending better than the company's own assumptions that were underpinning previous outlook. So I at least expect that they will acknowledge and factor this change into the outlook (given how much they have cited it as a headwind previously).

Harder to say whether the 1H24 financials will come in stronger, but the transition to new China label was probably the biggest single "variable" that might impact on this, and it seems to have gone relatively smoothly.

Even if all this happens, on reporting day I would be happy to see the recent SP gains maintained rather than the usual "sell the news" event that happens.